Geopolitical uncertainty is a top threat to the digital ambitions of businesses worldwide.
State-linked cyber activity is a threat that most businesses are aware of: the NCSC recently warning that Russian-aligned hacktivist groups continue to target UK organizations, with disruptive cyberattacks.
But it’s not just Russia: North Korean hackers have defrauded their way into networks and jobs in major US and UK companies to steal IP. Chinese hackers have hacked businesses and infrastructure for both strategic information and military leverage e.
Meanwhile, the US-Israel military attacks against Iran have elevated the risk of damaging attacks from that besieged regime against Western business infrastructure.
As geopolitical tensions and AI-driven threats escalate, the threat does not look likely to slow down.
However, this threat can take multiple forms.
The most obvious impact is on the technology supply chain. In recent years, over-reliance on a select few suppliers for advanced semiconductors created huge volatility in the market, not least for companies looking to harness AI.
A few years before that, countries that did not want to partner with Chinese Huawei, had few options beyond Ericson, Nokia and Samsung to get their 5G infrastructure built. This creates huge geopolitical tensions.
We are also seeing some cases of intentional sabotage of undersea telecoms cables, and breach of critical national infrastructure such as telecoms, logistics and transport.
Given the intensity of geopolitical rifts and the impact on supply chains, foundational infrastructure and critical networks, geopolitical diligence is now a must have. Too many organizations still assume that unless they operate in an active conflict zone, they are not a target. That is a dangerous misconception.
Building Enterprise-Level Geopolitical Resilience
So, what should businesses be doing now to build resilience against mounting geopolitical threats?
The first step is acknowledgement of your risk exposure. If your operations, your supply chain or your customers are based abroad, you have to take geopolitical risk seriously.
And geopolitical risk is an enterprise-level risk: it belongs on the board agenda alongside financial and operational risk. Mapping exposure across operations, technology, supply chains and customer bases should be a core exercise, not an occasional review prompted by crisis.
This becomes even more important when businesses diversify their operations, suppliers and customers. In response to global instability, many firms are seeking to reduce dependence on single markets or suppliers.
While diversification can strengthen resilience, it can also introduce new geopolitical and security vulnerabilities if not properly assessed. Entering a new jurisdiction without understanding its political trajectory, regulatory stability, or exposure to sanctions can simply exchange one risk for another.
Geopolitical assessments must therefore be embedded into strategic expansion decisions. This includes analyzing cyber threat activity, political stability, trade relationships and corruption levels. It also requires understanding how a host country may respond in a crisis – whether through regulations, capital controls or data localization laws. Diversification without geopolitical due diligence is not resilience; it is risk redistribution.
The Importance of Clear Communication Channels
Equally critical is the relationship a company maintains with its host governments. In stable times, engagement may seem procedural – compliance filings, regulatory updates, routine meetings. In a crisis, those relationships become lifelines.
Businesses that have established clear communication channels with relevant people within government, regulators and trade bodies are far better positioned to navigate sudden policy shifts or seek clarity during volatile periods.
Proactive engagement builds familiarity and trust. It ensures that, if an adverse geopolitical event occurs, there is an established mechanism for dialogue. This can be invaluable when seeking guidance. Companies that wait until a crisis erupts to initiate contact are already at a disadvantage.
The largest multinational enterprises such as those in the oil, gas or mining industry understood the value of proactive active engagement decades ago and dedicated massive resources to their government affairs departments.
But many other large businesses still fail to recognize that their cross-border dependencies create serious geopolitical exposure that cannot be left untreated.
State-Sponsored Cyber Threats
This is especially important since geopolitical tension increasingly manifests in less visible ways – particularly through cyber intrusion, data theft and intellectual property targeting.
As state-sponsored espionage intensifies, businesses must recognize that they may be targets not because of who they are, but because of what they know or who their customers or partners are. Sensitive client data, proprietary technology and strategic communications are all attractive assets.
This makes robust recruitment screening in data, cyber and IT-related roles essential. HR processes must go beyond standard credential checks to include appropriate vetting for foreign influence or espionage risks, in line with UK law and best practice.
Insider threats, whether malicious or coerced, are among the most difficult risks to detect and the most damaging when realized. Strengthening recruitment and ongoing monitoring processes is therefore a core element of geopolitical resilience.
Stress-Test Resilience with Tabletop Exercises
Finally, resilience cannot exist without rehearsal. Scenario planning and tabletop simulations are no longer theoretical exercises – they are practical tools for stress-testing an organization’s preparedness.
Structured exercises allow leadership teams to identify decision-making bottlenecks, clarify protocols and quantify financial exposure before a real crisis unfolds. They also foster cross-functional coordination between legal, operations, HR, communications and security teams. These are relationships that are crucial under pressure.
Geopolitical rifts are becoming more frequent, more complex and more interconnected. Businesses cannot control global politics, but they can control their preparedness. Those that treat geopolitical risk as a strategic priority embedding assessment, engagement, vetting and simulation into their operating model, will not only protect themselves from disruption but position themselves to act decisively when others are caught off guard.
